Fooled by Randomness
The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
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4.3 • 32 Ratings
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- £5.99
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- £5.99
Publisher Description
'One of the smartest books of all time' Fortune
'The hottest thinker in the world' Sunday Times
Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable?
This book is the bestselling sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist.
'An iconoclastic tour de force ... nothing escapes his Exocets' Evening Standard
'Brilliant' John Kay
'Excellent and thought-provoking ... an entertaining book' Financial Times
'Wall Street's principal dissident' Malcolm Gladwell
PUBLISHERS WEEKLY
In this look at financial luck, hedge fund manager Taleb (Dynamic Hedging) addresses the apparently irrational movement of money markets around the world. Using his own investing experience and examples of others' successes and disappointments, he discusses theories like Monte Carlo math (easy; considered cheating by purists) and the concept of Russian roulette. Taleb tells interesting, well-wrought stories about individual behavior: "While Nero has succeeded beyond his wildest dreams, both personally and intellectually, he is starting to consider himself as having missed a chance somewhere." While serious investors and mathematics enthusiasts will be intrigued, readers looking for practical investment strategies will be disappointed by this rambling intellectual discourse. Tables. 40,000-copy first printing; $150,000 marketing budget.
Customer Reviews
Confusing and compelling
Mathematics and probability theories are not my areas of comfort. I read and reread some of the paras that were mathematic and probabilistic till I managed to understand what Taleb was trying to convey(I think I did,🤔) this was the confusing part. The inferences from his mathematical content, from life situations and historical philosophy made compelling challenges to my thinking. I will read this book again in a years time. I need the first attempt to soak in.
Author fooled by randomness
The math advice in this book is gold. Even if the author sometimes uses case studies and experiments that are mostly due to randomness.